Odds via William Hill Sportsbook as of 10:05 PM et / 7:05 PM pt on Sunday, January 24, 2020. Lines subject to change.
The Super Bowl matchup is set.
After 256 regular season games, and another 12 in the playoffs, it all comes down to this.
The Kansas City Chiefs will take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a matchup that will see Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes go head-to-head on the game’s biggest stage.
The Chiefs, coming off of their 38-24 win over the Buffalo Bills, have opened as an three-point favourite over the Bucs.
TSN Edge will have you covered for the next two weeks as we give you the picks and analysis for everything happening in the game.
Right now, we’re going to look at how both teams stacked up against the numbers this season, and look back at some other interesting tidbits.
Between the regular season and playoffs, the Chiefs were favourites in 16 games this season, going 7-9 against the number.
The Chiefs were a favourite of three-or-less points just twice this season, covering both times.
In Week 15 they covered the -2.5 against the New Orleans Saints in a 32-29 win, and on Sunday they kicked off as a three-point favourite over the Bills.
On the flip side, the Buccaneers were an underdog just five times this season.
Brady and his Bucs went 2-1 against the number, and 1-2 straight up as an underdog in the regular season.
But they have won when it matters most, as both their divisional and championship round wins came as an underdog, boosting their totals to 4-1 ATS and 3-2 straight up.
The total for Super Bowl 55 has opened at 57
Kansas City had the over hit in nine games this season.
Tampa Bay had 11 games go over the number in their 19 games this season.
Two of their three playoff games went over the total, and they have scored at least 30 points in all three games.
Mahomes led the Chiefs to a 31-20 Super Bowl win over the San Francisco 49ers last season, covering the spread but going under the number.
Brady had the under hit in his first five Super Bowls, but the following three – 2015, 2017, 2018 – all went over, with his most recent – 2019 – falling well short of the 55.5 total in a 13-3 win over the Los Angeles Rams.
Since 2010, the total has gone over the number in six Super Bowl games.
WEEK 11 MEETING
The Super Bowl will be a rematch of the Week 11 game between these teams, a game which saw Mahomes and the Chiefs get the better of the Buccaneers.
The Chiefs led by 17 going into the fourth quarter, but Brady threw for two touchdowns to cut the lead to just three.
The game would end 27-24 for Kansas City, with Tampa Bay covering the +3.5, and the number falling short of the total of 56 points.
Mahomes was incredible against Tampa Bay, with 462 passing yards and three touchdowns.
Brady responded with 345 passing yards and three touchdowns of his own, but had two costly interceptions.
Mahomes vs Brady
Prior to this season, these two quarterbacks had gone head-to-head three other times.
Brady has the advantage 2-1 straight up with his Week 6 win in 2018, and conference championship round win in 2019.
However, Mahomes beat Brady 23-16 in Week 14 of the 2019 season, and his 2018 loss came in a 43-40 game as a three-and-a-half-point underdog, giving him the 2-1 lead against the spread.
Mahomes and the Chiefs were three-point favourites in the championship round, and led by four late in the game before a Dee Ford offside call negated a Brady interception to extend the game.
Brady at the Super Bowl
We already know that Mahomes is 1-0 in the Super Bowl, both straight up and against the number. But what about Tom?
The 43-year-old has gone 6-3 straight up in his nine Super Bowl games, but just a modest 4-5 against the spread.
However, Brady has been an underdog twice in those games and the results have been stellar.
In 2002, he and the Patriots were 14-point underdogs to the St. Louis Rams, winning 20-17, and in 2015 New England pulled off the 28-24 win over the Seattle Seahawks as a one-point dog.
In his seven Super Bowls as a favourite, Brady has gone 4-3 straight up and just 2-5 against the number.